Each week during the wildfire season, Dr. Mike Flannigan will share a five- to 10-day fire weather outlook for Canada. This is a first step in developing a national early warning system for wildfire in Canada. The fire weather outlook will be posted every Tuesday.
Mike Flannigan is the scientific director of the Institute for Wildfire Science, Adaptation, and Resiliency as well as the BC Innovation Research Chair in Predictive Services, Emergency Management and Fire Science at Thompson Rivers University.
View bioWeekly outlook | May 23-28, 2026 Issued May 19, 2026
All information provided below is reported at the time of publication and may not reflect more recent updates.
Current fire situation
The slow start to the 2026 Fire Season continues but….
Actually, there are a few buts. First, the area burned (Figure 1) is below the 2003-2025 year average (well below the 10 year average - CIFFC | Situation Report May 18, 2026) but that does not mean there has been no impacts. Fire is like real estate, location, location, location. Homes were lost at Sandy Beach AB and there have been evacuations including near Whitecourt AB last week. Second, typically fire activity is light in May so most of the fire season is still ahead of us. The lone exception is Alberta, where May typically is the busiest month with respect to fire.
Cumulative area burned in Canada by year estimated by satellite hot spots. National wildland fire summary
Most of the current fires are in BC, Alberta and most of the fires are under control or being held. However, we are starting to see a smattering of fires across southern areas of Canada.
Map showing location and status of fires in Canada as of May 19th.
ciffc.ca
Forecasted weather May 23-28
The upper atmosphere pattern continues to be highly variable during the forecast period though a building ridge develops over central Canada on May 27-28. Some ridging over eastern Canada May 23-26 and then a large ridge builds near the Manitoba – Ontario border on May 27-28. Keep an eye on this ridge as it looks like it could develop into a strong stationary ridge.
500 mb anomaly map for May 27, 2026. Red areas are above normal heights indicating a warmer atmosphere and the ridge ( black lines – geopotential height) means air is sinking warming and drying.
Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather
Below is the Initial Spread Index (ISI) map for May 28, 2026 (May 29 UTC). The ISI represents the relative rate of spread of a fire and is a combination of the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) and wind. The higher the ISI the faster the fire should spread. Some use the term, Spread Day, to define days where fires will actively spread and obviously these days are important to fire management. The ISI among other variables has been used as an indicator of a spread day – an ISI of 7- 10 or higher has been used for a spread day (though there is regional and seasonal variation – see When is fire weather extreme enough for active fire spread in Canada? | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B | The Royal Society.
. Initial Spread Index (ISI) for 28 May 2026. The regions with the potential for active spread stretch from NERN BC to southern NWRN Ontario.
static_maps (880×760)
Precipitation for May 23-28, 2026
Almost all of Manitoba and part of NWRN Ontario have no precipitation during the forecast period. Only light precipitation over northern Alberta.
The forecasted 5-day precipitation for May 23-28, 2026 | Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather
Lightning and the potential for lighting-caused fires, May 23-28, 2026
Fairly light lightning activity is expected during the May 23-28 forecast period over most of Canada. However, lots of lightning associated with a cold front over eastern Alberta and Saskatchewan towards the end of the forecast period but significant rain accompanies the lightning.
Lightning forecast for May 26 | Meteologix.com
Fire weather outlook May 23-28
The relatively quiet trend continues but some fire activity possible for eastern QC as well as NB and NS early in the forecast period. Potential for conducive fire weather over northern Alberta as well as Manitoba and parts of NWRN Ontario towards the end of the forecast period.
A Look Ahead – 2026 Fire Season
Kyle Brittain and I discuss the upcoming fire season as well as a peek at the 2027 fire season. Kyle also does a deep dive on the forecasted strong El Nino.
Questions?We have the answers
Questions, including media requests for Mike Flannigan, can be emailed to wildfire@tru.ca.
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