Each week during the wildfire season, Dr. Mike Flannigan will share a five- to 10-day fire weather outlook for Canada. This is a first step in developing a national early warning system for wildfire in Canada. The fire weather outlook will be posted every Tuesday.
Mike Flannigan is the scientific director of the Institute for Wildfire Science, Adaptation, and Resiliency as well as the BC Innovation Research Chair in Predictive Services, Emergency Management and Fire Science at Thompson Rivers University.
View bioWeekly Outlook | June 13-18, 2026 Issued June 9, 2026
All information provided below is reported at the time of publication and may not reflect more recent updates.
Current fire situation
Fire Activity Has Increased but Remains Well Below the 10-year Average
Around 150,000 hectares* have burned thus far this fire season, but this is well below the 10-year average of 800,000 ha for this time of year CIFC Situation Report.
Figure 1 shows 2026 area burned compared to other recent years. Some heat and fire activity did spread into Ontario, with the Timmins 009 fire burning over 3,000 ha (Figure 2). We now have around 90 active fires stretching from the Yukon to Ontario, which has resulted in the National Preparedness Level rising to NPL2 (Scale from 1-5, with 1 representing light activity and 5 representing significant activity; see Figure 3.)
Figure 1. Cumulative area burned in Canada by year, estimated from satellite hotspots.
Figure 2. GOES East GeoColor imagery from June 3rd, 2026, showing a large smoke plume from a fire south
of Timmins, Ontario.
Figure 3. National Preparedness Levels (NPL) in Canada.
Fire weather outlook June 13-18, 2026
Activity Shifting to the North
The potential for an active period of fire activity shifts to the north for June 13th-18th. The 500 mb anomaly map for Monday, June 15th shows a ridge from British Columbia (BC) to the Yukon (YT) and the Northwest Territories (NWT) (Figure 4). Precipitation for June 13th-18th is absent or light across the NWT and parts of the Yukon, northern BC, northern Alberta (AB) and northern Saskatchewan (SK) (Figure 5), and all of these areas have the potential for fire activity. Of particular interest is the NWT, as parts of the territory will see windy conditions June 14th-18th, thus completing the hot, dry, and windy recipe needed for active fire spread. Some lightning is expected in the NWT on June 13th (Figure 6).
Figure 4. 500 mb anomaly map for Monday, June 15th, 2026. Red areas represent above-normal heights,
indicating that the air mass is warmer than normal.
Figure 5. Precipitation amounts forecast for June 13th-18th, 2026.
Figure 6. 12-hour lightning density forecast for June 13th, 2026.
A Look Ahead
The updated seasonal forecast for July – September has just been released. The forecast suggests a hot summer across many areas of Canada (Figure 7), with normal to below-normal levels of precipitation (Figure 8). This is a recipe for an active fire season unless ignitions can be avoided. Keep in mind that seasonal precipitation forecasts have limited skill.
Figure 7. ECMWF Seasonal temperature forecast for July – September.
Figure 8. ECMWF Seasonal precipitation forecast for July – September.
Questions?We have the answers
Questions, including media requests for Mike Flannigan, can be emailed to wildfire@tru.ca.
Want to keep up with fire weather and fire activity? Check out @mikeflannigan.bsky.social.
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